How do polygenic scores predict ADHD diagnosis?

PostedOctober 7, 2025

UpdatedOctober 10, 2025

ByMy Patient Advice

Author: Victoria Rowe, MSc | Reviewed by: Dr. Rebecca Fernandez, MBBS

In the world of ADHD polygenic prediction, scientists are exploring how genetic testing could one day enhance how we diagnose and understand ADHD. These predictions are based on polygenic scores, which add up the risk carried by many genetic variants. However, their reliability remains limited.

Current research shows that polygenic scores can predict a small but measurable portion of ADHD risk. These scores are based on data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), which identify common genetic variants across large populations. The more ADHD-associated variants a person has, the higher their cumulative genetic risk. Still, this does not translate neatly into clinical use yet.

What We Know About ADHD Polygenic Prediction

ADHD polygenic prediction shows that many small genetic variations collectively increased risk, helping researchers understand heritability and individual susceptibility.

Modest diagnostic accuracy

While ADHD is highly heritable (around 70–80%), the polygenic risk score (PRS) only explains a small part of that, typically about 4–6% of total variance in diagnosis. So, PRS is not currently accurate enough to serve as a stand-alone diagnostic tool.

Better at group-level prediction than individual diagnosis

PRS works best at a population level for identifying trends or comparing groups not for deciding whether one person has ADHD. However, when combined with behavioural checklists or clinical history, it may add value.

Link to symptom severity and co-occurring conditions

People with higher ADHD polygenic scores tend to show more severe symptoms, earlier onset, and increased risk of comorbid conditions. This suggests PRS could eventually inform treatment planning.

Future potential in genetic testing

Though not ready for mainstream clinical use, genetic testing using PRS could evolve to support early identification or personalising treatment. This will require more diverse datasets and deeper integration of genetic and environmental data. Visit providers like ADHD Certify for personal consultations on genetics and ADHD traits.

For a deeper dive into the science, diagnosis, and full treatment landscape, read our complete guide to Genetic studies and biomarkers.

Victoria Rowe, MSc

Author

Victoria Rowe is a health psychologist with a Master’s in Health Psychology and a BS in Applied Psychology. She has experience as a school psychologist, conducting behavioural assessments, developing individualized education plans (IEPs), and supporting children’s mental health. Dr. Rowe has contributed to peer-reviewed research on mental health, including studies on anxiety disorders and the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare systems. Skilled in SPSS, Minitab, and academic writing, she is committed to advancing psychological knowledge and promoting well-being through evidence-based practice.

All qualifications and professional experience stated above are authentic and verified by our editorial team. However, pseudonym and image likeness are used to protect the author's privacy.

Dr. Rebecca Fernandez, MBBS

Reviewer

Dr. Rebecca Fernandez is a UK-trained physician with an MBBS and experience in general surgery, cardiology, internal medicine, gynecology, intensive care, and emergency medicine. She has managed critically ill patients, stabilised acute trauma cases, and provided comprehensive inpatient and outpatient care. In psychiatry, Dr. Fernandez has worked with psychotic, mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders, applying evidence-based approaches such as CBT, ACT, and mindfulness-based therapies. Her skills span patient assessment, treatment planning, and the integration of digital health solutions to support mental well-being.

All qualifications and professional experience stated above are authentic and verified by our editorial team. However, pseudonym and image likeness are used to protect the reviewer's privacy.